Election cycle after election cycle, politicians exploit voters’ valid fears about safety, stability, and security with Willie Horton-style attacks on their opponents, branding them “soft” or  “weak” on these fundamental issues that matter to all Americans. Poll after poll finds that voters in this cycle—across political affiliation, geography, age, race, or other demographics—believe that the “crime situation” is more serious today than in previous years and, increasingly, immigration is a top concern. In 2024, Republicans are especially leaning into this line of attack, spending more than $167 million advertising on these fear-driven issues in the first half of the year alone according to media-tracking firm AdImpact.

This report highlights five key takeaways from political ad spending and polling on crime and immigration in recent election cycles. All ad data was provided by AdImpact and commissioned by Vera Action.  

Political ad spending in general is rapidly on the rise in the United States. Both the 2020 general election and the 2022 midterms broke records for money spent on political ads. Campaigns, PACs, parties, and other groups spent $8.9 billion on political ads in the 2022 midterms, just $119 million short of total spending in the 2020 general election. In particular, spending on ads about crime grew by about 123 percent between 2020 and 2022, more than doubling the number of crime related ads on our TVs and screens.

In 2022, politicians used these ads to drive a fear narrative in response to the 2020 George Floyd protests (and ensuing reforms) and a pandemic-related national rise in violent crime. Political media cycles also reinforce the narrative of fear: for example, in the week after the November 2022 midterm cycle, Fox News’s coverage of violent crime dropped by half. As crime rates have declined in cities across the United States over the past two years—notably in big cities often scapegoated as crime centers and coinciding with historic federal investments towards promising solutions like community violence intervention programs—crime is seen as a less potent line of attack.  

Now, politicians have shifted their fear attacks to capitalize on voters’ concerns about immigration and the southern border. Ad spending on immigration has soared in the last six months, with more than $155 million spent just from January to June 2024. This is far outpacing the immigration ad spend in the 2022 cycle ($181.5 million from January to November) and overwhelmingly exceeding the 2020 cycle ($71 million from January to November). Of all political ad airings in the first half of 2024, nearly a quarter have focused on immigration, surpassing other top election issues. 

While on the surface, political ads in 2024 have shifted focus away from crime and toward immigration, the new immigration ads are very similar in substance to the 2022 crime ads.  

 Just like crime ads in 2022, this year’s immigration ads are exploiting genuine concerns by falsely painting newly arriving migrants as threats to their safety. Republicans have spent nearly $6.5 million on ads mentioning “migrant crime.” Talk of a “border bloodbath” and “migrant crime wave”—myths that have been debunked time and time again—are frequently paired with sensational and violent imagery.

But if 2022 is any lesson, it is that while volume and saturation matters, message matters too. Republicans made a $157 million bet that fearmongering about crime would win them the midterms, but this approach largely failed, with a Vera Action poll right after the election showing that “tough-on-crime” messaging was not what the majority of voters wanted. When given a choice, voters nationally and in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan consistently prefer a “serious about safety” approach centering solutions to prevent crime over a “tough–on–crime” approach.  

However, recent elections suggest that a “tough-on-crime” message can break through if it is not met with a response or if both parties get into a debate over who is “tougher.” Democrats who try to co-opt the right’s message underperform when compared to Democrats with their own message on safety. 

In this year’s special election for New York’s third congressional district, Republican Mazi Pilip ran hard on attacking Democrat Tom Suozzi as “soft” on crime and immigration.  

 Instead of ignoring the attacks by pivoting to other issues or trying to run to Pilip’s right, Suozzi spent more than $2 million on ads defending his values on immigration and public safety, ultimately becoming the top Democratic spender on immigration ads to date in 2024. Suozzi affirmed that he would work across party lines to get things done and emphasized his balanced approach of addressing the challenges at the border and passing a path to citizenship against his opponent’s empty political rhetoric. 

Despite all Pilip’s “tough” rhetoric, she still lost, further demonstrating that candidates have to demonstrate that they are serious about safety and security—with real solutions, not soundbites or scare tactics. 

In Baltimore, Mayor Brandon Scott, handily fended off a primary challenger this year. And while his challenger, former Mayor Sheila Dixon, tried to own “solutions” and “crime prevention” on the campaign trail, she also attempted to peel votes from Scott by leaning into more typical “tough-on-crime” rhetoric. In one ad, Dixon sought to portray crime as out of control under Mayor Scott’s leadership, arguing that “carjackers are out of control” and in another promised to “go after the most violent offenders and their illegal guns.” Neither ad mentioned specific solutions, and Dixon’s prevention strategy centered more on policing than the community investments voters prefer. 

 In the face of these attacks, Scott didn’t run away from his values. Instead, he talked often about his record on preventing crime and promoting justice. Scott spent more than $620,000 on ads highlighting his comprehensive approach to addressing crime in Baltimore, including opening a dozen public schools, supporting recreation centers for kids, and working with community partners to drive homicide rates down 20 percent in one year. Once again, promoting real solutions beat out “tough-on-crime” rhetoric. 

From January to May 2024, Republican ad spending made clear that safety was a priority issue, while Democrats stayed comparatively silent.

 Excluding crime-related ads focused on Trump’s convictions, MAGA Inc. is the single largest spender from January to June on crime ads this year at $5 million, while another Republic PAC, One Nation, is the largest spender on immigration-related ads at $9.7 million. 

This partisan volume gap in the political ad space has had a clear impact on voters’ perceptions of each party’s handling of crime. Right after the 2022 midterm cycles, a majority of voters nationally said they heard more from Republicans on crime. 

 More recently, in a March 2024 national survey, voters similarly reported hearing more from Republicans on immigration, though the gap is slightly less pronounced than on crime. 

 If the current ad spending trends persist, we can expect to see this volume gap intensify, solidifying voters’ perceptions of which party is prioritizing the issue. Currently, while neither party has the trust of a majority of voters on immigration or crime, Republicans have an edge on both issues. 

Following former President Donald Trump’s conviction in May, Democrats have ramped up ad spending painting Republicans as the true soft on crime party. In just one month, Democrats (especially President Biden) spent over $6 million on ads to demonstrate their “law-and-order” bona fides, calling Trump a “convicted criminal” and criticizing Republicans for aligning with him. These ads account for 53 percent of the party’s total spending on crime-related ads this year.  

 But polling shows that focusing on Trump’s convictions is not an effective strategy for Democrats to allay people’s day-to-day fears about crime. Nor have Trump’s convictions changed voters’ minds about who they will support come November. Voters want to hear that Democrats are taking their concerns about crime seriously and have real solutions for safety and justice. Yet Republicans are dominating the conversation with “tough-on-crime” rhetoric, which polling shows can be effective in the absence of an alternative message.  

The assumptions that Republicans are winning on crime and immigration by leaning into “tough” rhetoric, and that Democrats should follow suit, are both wrong. Recent polling and ad trends show that while voters are hearing significantly more from Republicans on issues of crime and immigration, the partisan trust gap on both issues is narrow, with neither party polling above 50 percent. Neither party is effectively speaking to voters’ concerns, but Republicans are communicating about these issues at a much higher volume.  

In other words, “tough” rhetoric is not winning, but if voters hear one uncontested message more frequently, they will go toward the candidate who at least seems to be taking the issue they care about seriously. While a Republican ad blitz on immigration and crime in 2024 will undoubtedly draw intense hype as crime ads did in 2022, its effectiveness is by no means a foregone conclusion.